With Bitcoin ETFs pulling in nearly $11 billion in Q2 alone and corporate treasuries like Metaplanet and Twenty One Capital stacking BTC, you’d expect prices to skyrocket. Yet, Bitcoin remains stubbornly trapped between $100K and $110K. What gives?

📉 Smart Money Is Selling Into Strength

Charles Edwards of Capriole Investments points to long-term holders (LTHs) as the reason. These “Bitcoin OGs” have been offloading their holdings since ETFs launched in January 2024. While 6-month holders are increasing exposure, holders from 2+ years ago are actively distributing.

📊 OTC Activity Masking Real Demand?

Some analysts suggest that large BTC buys are happening off-exchange through OTC desks, where their impact on price is minimal. That might explain why $11B of inflows didn’t move the needle. But even OTC reserves are reportedly down 20–30% since 2024—setting the stage for a potential supply squeeze.

🐋 Whales Are Still Trimming Positions

Whale wallets holding over 1K BTC fell from 2,114 to 2,008 in June before slightly recovering. These movements lined up with Bitcoin’s local top at $111K, adding more weight to the theory that major holders are taking profit.

📉 Retail Interest Is Fading

Retail participation also dropped 10% in the same period, putting further pressure on the price. Despite all the institutional buzz, the crowd isn’t chasing the rally—yet.

🎯 Bottom Line

Bitcoin remains under pressure from smart money distribution, even as ETF demand continues to grow. Until that supply overhang eases—or retail and institutions absorb it fully—the breakout above $110K may stay elusive.

Could this be a long-term accumulation zone before the next leg higher? Possibly. But patience may be required.

🔒 This is not financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.