Bitcoin is making headlines again, not just for breaking past $94,000, but for the powerful undercurrents shaping its rise. While short-term traders take profits or hedge, long-term holders (LTHs) have quietly added over 635,000 BTC since January—an aggressive sign of growing institutional confidence and a shift in market psychology.

Options Markets Signal Strategic Optimism

Traders are increasingly selling cash-secured puts—effectively offering to buy BTC at lower levels while collecting premiums. This reflects confidence that Bitcoin’s downside is limited in the near term. Simultaneously, bullish positioning in call options at $95K, $100K, and even $135K is growing, with over $1.6 billion in open interest at the $100K strike on Deribit.

This isn’t reckless optimism—it’s calculated risk-taking. The drop in Deribit’s volatility index (DVOL) from 63 to 48 suggests expectations of smoother price action, even as open interest climbs.

Spot Market: Where the Real Action Is

Behind the scenes, Binance is showing strong spot demand. The taker buy/sell ratio—a real-time measure of trader aggressiveness—has climbed sharply, suggesting large buyers are stepping in without waiting for dips. Interestingly, despite rising prices, funding rates remain negative, pointing to skepticism among futures traders. Historically, such setups have led to short squeezes.

Who’s Really Holding?

On-chain data from Glassnode shows that long-term holders now control 13.76 million BTC, compared to 3.5 million for short-term holders. While retail investors are taking profits, whales and institutions are accumulating—a powerful vote of confidence in Bitcoin’s future.

The Bigger Picture: Is the Cycle Theory Dead?

Some analysts, including CryptoQuant’s CEO Ki Young Ju, are beginning to question traditional market cycle models. If Bitcoin hits new all-time highs before Q4, the old rules may no longer apply. Institutional demand, ETF inflows, and macro uncertainty could be rewriting the narrative.

Is it time to buy? The signs are mixed but leaning bullish. Accumulation by whales, strong spot demand, and smart options strategies suggest Bitcoin’s strength isn’t just hype—it’s conviction. While the $100K barrier may take time, the market seems to be setting up for a larger move.

📌 This is not financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.